The Aral in Crisis

Ziyovuddin Akramov and Asom Rafiqov, The Aral Asks for Help. June 1986.

Writing from inside the Soviet system and from the region itself, two Uzbek geographers compile a methodical reckoning with catastrophe: rivers diverted, deltas dead, fish extinct, salt-laden winds advancing on the oases. The prognosis is bleak — a salt desert by 2010 — but the authors still reach for practical remedies.

Original Source: Зиёвуддин Акрамов, Асом Рафиқов. Орол мадад сўрайди. Шарқ юлдузи” журнали, 1986 йил, 6-сон.

The gift of nature known as "water of life" has given rise to proverbs in every culture. Its place in human existence needs no elaboration.

According to UNESCO, some 2 billion people lack full access to fresh water, since drinking water is unevenly distributed across the globe. Per capita annual water availability stands at an average of 2.9 thousand cubic meters in India, 3.8 thousand in China, 13.0 thousand in Indonesia, and 128.0 thousand in Canada. Global water consumption now amounts to 3,000 cubic meters per person per year, a figure expected to grow by half again by the start of the 21st century. This continuous growth in demand is largely driven by expansion of irrigated land, which by 1990 is projected to reach 280 million hectares — 50 million more than today. Demand will increase accordingly.

Within our country, water resources are distributed very unevenly: in the more densely populated arid zone, per capita freshwater availability averages only 0.4–4.5 thousand cubic meters, while in the northern regions this figure approaches 30 thousand cubic meters. Moreover, in the foothill zone, water consumption for irrigation, industry, transport, and municipal needs is higher than in other regions, requiring extremely careful use.

The unprecedented expansion of irrigation in Central Asia and Kazakhstan over the last 25 years has compelled the large-scale use of available water resources. As a result, flow in the lower reaches of all rivers has been declining. The Aral Sea — which until the early 1960s was fed abundantly — Lake Balkhash, and several lakes in the lower reaches of the Chu and Sarysu rivers have all been growing shallower. Lake Issyk-Kul's level has also dropped significantly due to large withdrawals for irrigation.

The negative environmental impact of the drying of these basins — full for centuries — is visibly intensifying year by year. Scientists and specialists are now focused on eliminating these consequences as rapidly as possible.

Agriculture has flourished in Central Asia and Kazakhstan for 4,000–5,000 years. Archaeological research confirms that in ancient times, 4.5–5 million hectares were irrigated in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Favorable climate, abundant rivers, and soils not yet laden with salt allowed large-scale farming. By 1913, 2 million hectares were irrigated in the Aral basin. After the October Revolution, irrigation proceeded according to unified plans, and the irrigated area grew steadily. Expansion accelerated dramatically after the May 1966 Plenum of the CPSU Central Committee. Turkmenistan's irrigated area has since more than doubled; Uzbekistan's has grown by 1.2 million hectares; Kazakhstan's by 0.7 million. Today more than 8.5 million hectares are under irrigated cultivation — an increase of 2.8 million hectares over 1965 and 3.8 million over 1950.

How much water is available in the Aral basin, and how much is being used? Average multi-year river runoff totals 127.5 cubic kilometers: 79.5 from the Amu Darya basin, 37.2 from the Syr Darya, and 10.2 from all Kyrgyz and Kazakh river basins. According to the USSR Ministry of Geology, groundwater that can be tapped without damaging river flow amounts to 15.7 cubic kilometers. Total annually renewable water resources thus stand at 143.2 cubic kilometers.

More than 110 cubic kilometers are currently being distributed across irrigated fields in the Aral basin. Yet despite successive droughts since 1970 and declining average annual river flow, water continues to be delivered at designated irrigation volumes. During the severe 1974–75 drought, Syr Darya flow was 38% below the multi-year average, and 50% below during the growing season; water consumption ran 1.5–2 times greater than actual river discharge. Reservoirs and drainage waters made up the shortfall. The same drought recurred in 1982–83, and in Uzbekistan alone, cropped areas had to be cut by 600,000 hectares.

Water use in the Syr Darya basin grew from 22 cubic kilometers in 1950 to 43 cubic kilometers in 1980, of which 6 cubic kilometers came from return flows; all water resources of this basin are now being used to excess. The Amu Darya still has some reserve, but water shortages have been intensifying there as well since 1980.

Beyond agriculture, water is consumed by industry, municipal services, transport, construction, and livestock operations. In Uzbekistan alone, more than 6 cubic kilometers per year goes to industry, municipal services, and aquaculture.

As irrigated areas expand, return water volumes flowing out through collector systems also grow continuously. Average drainage volumes currently amount to 25–60% of canal intakes; according to SANIIRI, total return water exceeds 36 cubic kilometers per year. Of this, 17.3 cubic kilometers flows back into river channels for reuse in irrigation, while the remainder is discharged into closed depressions in the Kyzylkum and Karakum. About 40 cubic kilometers of return water has now accumulated in basins such as Dengizköl, Sarykamysh, and Arnasoy. As irrigated agriculture continues to grow, the number of such "artificial saline lakes" will increase. In a period of mounting water shortage, rationally using these waters — mixed with river water for irrigation — could create real opportunities to develop irrigated agriculture further in the region.

The October 1984 Plenum of the CPSU Central Committee established a long-term land reclamation program. By the year 2000, Uzbekistan's irrigated area alone is planned to reach 5–5.5 million hectares — up 1.5–1.7 million hectares from the current 3.8 million — requiring at least 18–20 additional cubic kilometers of water. This can only be achieved by increasing the efficiency of irrigation networks, reconstructing old irrigation systems, improving irrigation methods and technology, and applying the latest scientific advances to reclamation.

The continuous expansion of irrigated areas from the early 1960s, combined with rising water consumption and the successive droughts since 1970, has severely affected the Aral Sea's hydrological regime. Annual inflow through the Amu Darya and Syr Darya averaged 42.9 cubic kilometers in 1961–1970, 16.1 in 1971–1980, and only 4.2 in 1981–1984.

The regulation of water regimes in the lower Amu Darya and Syr Darya, and the development of irrigation throughout the basins, caused the Aral's level to fall. In 1965, the commissioning of the Chardara reservoir on the Syr Darya regulated the lower river's water regime — controlling spring and summer floods and summer snowmelt and glacier flow — and significantly reduced inflow to the sea. In 1974, the river was completely blocked by a dam above Kazalinsk. From that year, Syr Darya water has not reached the Aral at all.

The water regime of the lower Amu Darya delta was completely transformed by the commissioning of the Takhiatash hydro-engineering complex in 1974. Before this, floods spread water across vast areas of the delta, filling lakes and swamps; north of Nukus the river divided into several channels. The sea basin was so full that delta flow toward the Aral moved very slowly, and dense reed beds six to eight meters high sometimes made it impossible to distinguish seashore from delta. After Takhiatash regulated the delta's water regime, annual floods and continuous river flow ceased; water is now released periodically toward the sea only when not needed for irrigation. In some severely dry years — 1982 is an example — no water reaches the sea at all.

The drop in the Aral's level is primarily due to the gradual reduction of inflow from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya dating from before the early 1960s. Until 1974, the level fell slowly, because despite below-normal flows both rivers still delivered water steadily. The Aral surface dropped 3 meters by 1974. From that year the decline accelerated sharply: depending on precipitation and Amu Darya discharge, the level has been dropping 40–70 centimeters per year. By early 1985 it had fallen 11 meters. Average depth is now 5 meters; maximum depth is 58 meters.

The current volume of sea water is approximately 450 cubic kilometers; surface area is 44,500 square kilometers; average salinity is 22–24 grams per liter.

The current shoreline has retreated 40–50 kilometers from the southern coast and 80–100 kilometers from the southeastern part. Retreat is occurring mainly along the southern, eastern, and northern shores, which are not very deep; the western part, being very deep (maximum 69 meters), has receded only a few hundred meters from the old shoreline. Future shrinkage will continue mainly along the southern, eastern, and northern coasts.

Changes in the Amu Darya Delta

By the early 1960s, lakes and ponds of various sizes occupied approximately 100,000 hectares in the Amu Darya delta and came close to 345,000 hectares in total area, supplied by 6.4 cubic kilometers per year from the river. As river supply declined, lakes and ponds shrank: by 1968 their area had halved; by early 1975, almost all had dried up. Only a few lakes remain today, their areas dependent on drainage and similar water inflows, with salinity of 5–10 grams per liter and depths of 1–19 meters.

The beds of dried lakes were first covered with dense reeds and cattail; as groundwater levels dropped, mineralization rose, and salt accumulated, these were replaced by salt-tolerant plants: black saxaul, tamarisk, sea lavender, and annual saltworts. Tamarisk and black saxaul now dominate vast areas, as these plants not only tolerate salinity but can draw saline moisture from depth through long roots.

In the early 1960s, the Amu Darya emptied into the sea through four channels: Inzhener-Uzak, Urdoboy, Right Akkoy, and Left Akkoy. Today only the Urdoboy channel retains flow. Channels such as Toldikdarya, Köhnadarya, Gedey, Erkindарya, and Chörtambay have dried up entirely. The Qazaqdarya and Ravshan branches have been converted to canals; Akboshli and Qazaqdarya have been turned into artificial reservoirs.

With the main flow now passing through Akdarya to Urdoboy, and with the river level continuously dropping, deep channel incision is occurring along Akdarya, reaching 8–10 meters in places.

The regulation of river water regimes in the Aral basin has also reduced the deposition of large sediment loads in the lower reaches and deltas. Sediment that erosion once carried from mountain slopes now settles in reservoir beds. In the mid-1970s, 112 million tons of sediment per year flowed into the Amu Darya's irrigation networks. A large portion of this now settles behind dams. According to calculations by V. A. Kovda and others, before the Takhiatash complex was commissioned, every 10,000 cubic meters of irrigation water per hectare carried 36 tons of river sediment — including 600–1,200 kg of potassium, approximately 50 kg of phosphorus, 20 kg of nitrogen, and 265 kg of humus. This natural soil enrichment is now declining.

Before the early 1960s, groundwater in the northern part of the Amu Darya delta lay near the surface, maintained by the sea's hydrostatic pressure, annual floods, and the presence of lakes, swamps, and ponds. The fall of the sea level and the regulation of river regimes changed this drastically. The drying sea basin now draws down delta groundwater like a natural drain, while evaporation accelerates the process. Near the old shoreline, groundwater now lies 3–10 meters deep; in the western and central reed-bed areas, 2–3 meters; in the eastern part, 8–10 meters.

Groundwater mineralization in the areas near Lake Sudochye and Zhiltirbas reaches 30–50 grams per liter, with some areas registering 80–100 grams; in the seasonally flooded pastures of the western and central delta, 10–20 grams; elsewhere 30–80 grams.

Soils that once developed under hydromorphic conditions are transitioning to automorphic development. Alluvial boggy and meadow soils (550,000 hectares) have turned to dried boggy soils; meadow alluvial soils are shifting to meadow-desert soils on higher ground and dried alluvial soils in lowlands. Active salt marshes covered 84,000 hectares in the non-irrigated zone of the delta before 1960; by 1984, this figure had quadrupled.

In the southeastern coastal zone of the Aral, where sea water had once seeped through ridge sands and maintained several hundred small lakes, drying has produced very thick salt deposits — sodium-chloride and sulphate-sodium in composition. According to SANIIRI preliminary estimates, more than 268 million tons of salt has accumulated within 0–2 meters depth in the northern non-irrigated zone of the Amu Darya delta, of which 47.3% is in salt marshes.

Before ecological conditions changed, the Amu Darya delta was characterized by reed beds that L. S. Berg described as a unique "Aral coastal landscape." Reed thickets once covered 760,000 hectares; today only 100,000 hectares remain. In their place, drought-tolerant, salt-resistant tamarisk, black saxaul, sea lavender, and other saltwort-family plants have spread. Pasture productivity has fallen from 6–16 centners per hectare (reeds) to 0.5–3 centners.

Previously, both banks of river channels were lined with tugay forests 2–5 kilometers wide, flooded by up to 0.5 meters during spring high water. The regulation of the delta's water regime, the drying of channels, falling groundwater, increasing soil salinity, and intensifying drought are now killing the trees. The 261,000 hectares of tugay forest that existed in 1961 have been reduced fivefold. Rivers such as Erkindарya, Köhnadarya, Qazaqdarya, Chörtambay, Toldikdarya, and Akboshli are losing their bankside forests. Productive pastures once tied to these unique forests are being replaced by low-yield xerophyte pastures.

Climate Change

The Aral's retreat is measurably affecting regional climate. At Muynak station, average January temperature rose from 4.4°C in 1961–65 to 8.3°C in 1976–80; at Qungirot, from 4.8°C to 8.1°C. Relative July humidity at Muynak dropped from 61% in 1950–59 to 57% in 1970–79. The last spring frost now arrives 10–12 days later at coastal stations; the first autumn frost arrives 10–12 days earlier. The sea's climate-moderating effect is steadily diminishing, and dusty days have increased substantially compared to 20 years ago.

Changes in the Syr Darya Delta

Changes in the Syr Darya delta began with the commissioning of the Kairakkum (1965) and Chardara (1965) reservoirs. From 1974, the complete cessation of Syr Darya inflow to the Aral caused fundamental changes in the natural and ecological conditions of the delta. By the early 1970s, according to Kazakh specialists, more than 2 million hectares of tugay forests, hayfields, and pastures had dried up in the middle valley and the ancient and current deltas; by the early 1980s, another 846,000 hectares of pastures and forests were beginning to turn to desert. Groundwater levels have dropped 3.5 meters in the delta, up to 7–8 meters in places; mineralization now runs 5–9 grams per liter.

Reed beds previously covered more than 220,000 hectares in the Syr Darya delta; their area has now shrunk tenfold. The Qaraözak and Akchoy–Quvondarya lake systems, each covering more than 50,000 hectares in the 1970s, have lost all economic value.

Economic Consequences

Fishing has completely ceased in the Aral Sea. Fish species adapted to former salinity levels have been entirely wiped out; the increasing salinity prevents even salt-adapted species from reproducing. Until recently, up to 500,000 centners of fish were caught here annually. The Aral ranked among the USSR's leading fisheries, supplying Aral roach, pike-perch, carp, and barbel. The fish processing plant at Muynak — once a union-level facility with processing shops on islands throughout the sea — has been reduced to working with small catches from remaining delta lakes, Lake Sarykamysh, and the Atlantic Ocean. Its unit costs are rising.

As the shoreline has retreated from port towns, maritime transport and the industrial functions of Muynak, Uchsoy, Qazaqdarya, Urga, Aralsk, and dozens of other settlements have collapsed. Ship repair enterprises have closed; navigation has halted. Large and small vessels stand stranded on what was the seabed near the former port towns — ships and barges that, if relocated to other seas or rivers, could still be of use.

Previously several fishing collective farms supplied the Muynak plant; now their number has sharply declined and the workforce has been shifted to other sectors. Full employment for displaced workers has not yet been resolved.

The resort zone on the eastern coast of the Muynak peninsula — Uzbekistan's only seaside resort, hosting pioneer camps and recreation zones for workers from across Central Asia — is now entirely closed.

Muskrat trapping, once a major industry, has been devastated: 1,200,000 muskrats were caught in the Amu Darya delta in 1957; only 5,000 in 1979. Total national-economic losses in the southern Aral region from falling sea levels — fisheries, hunting, muskrat farming, maritime and river transport — amounted to 92.6 million rubles in 1980 alone.

The Future of the Aral Sea

Scientific research indicates that in the sand massifs of the drying seabed, dunes and sand accumulations will be mainly fully formed within the next 15–20 years, covered with psammophyte plants and developing a Kyzylkum-type desert landscape. In the salt marshes of the dried seabed, the process of salt accumulation will transition to natural desalinization as groundwater drops 6–8 meters, shifting soils from hydromorphic to automorphic development.

In 1981–90, lands emerging from beneath the sea will develop salt marshes with higher salt content as sea mineralization exceeds 25 grams per liter; crust salt marshes will intensify due to sodium-chloride accumulation.

In 1991–2000, due to extremely high groundwater mineralization (60–100 grams per liter), bare, extremely saline salt marshes will form with no ecological conditions for plant growth; everywhere will be covered with thick layers of bare white salt.

From the early 1990s, Amu Darya inflow to the Aral will continue to decrease, and complete cessation is not impossible. Due to vast evaporation and lack of river inflow, after 1990 the Aral level is expected to drop a further 13 meters, causing the Large Sea to separate from the Small Sea. Sea mineralization will rise to 28.5 grams per liter. By 2010 the Large Sea will divide into two water bodies — a shallower eastern part and a deeper western part. The eastern shallow part will dry up entirely and turn into a vast salt marsh, while the western part continues to evaporate.

Since the sea is located where the Kyzylkum, Ustyurt, Large and Small Barsuki, and Aral Karakum deserts could potentially converge, the emergence of an Aral Desert is inevitable if the process continues. If all the sea water evaporates, more than 10 billion tons of salt will remain in its bed.

According to Soviet scientist S. Yu. Geller, sodium chloride crystals will bind together and form a hard, thick layer resistant to wind — analogous to what has been observed at dried small lakes near the Aral and Caspian coasts. However, winter waves may wash sodium sulphate salts ashore; the resulting mirabilite will dry in summer into thenardite, a lightweight mineral quickly dispersed by wind that raises soil salinity across wide areas. According to SANIIRI preliminary calculations, more than 500 kg of salt per hectare per year is already being blown from the dried part of the Aral Sea to the Amu Darya delta. Given that wind in this region blows predominantly from north to south and southwest throughout the year, salt accumulation will fall entirely on the territory of the Khorezm oasis. Maintaining the Aral Sea level at a certain stable point is therefore necessary to reduce the spread of sulphate salts to the surrounding environment.

Recommendations

To stop desertification in the delta, irrigation must be organized across the entire area. Return and collector-drainage waters, if used to irrigate reed beds, could achieve significant results. In the western part of the delta, a special canal diverting the Daryoliq and Ozerny collectors from Lake Sarykamysh to Lake Sudochye could enable liman (flood) irrigation of nearly 3 cubic kilometers and the refilling of dozens of dried lakes. In Karakalpakstan alone, water is being used at nearly double the necessary rate; proper observance of irrigation and saline leaching norms could save at least 3–3.5 cubic kilometers per year.

To supply clean water to the population of the lower Amu Darya region — where the Samanbay, Temirbay, and Qazaqdarya rivers are no longer potable, and toxic agricultural chemicals have been detected in the river — a pipeline from the Tuyamuyun reservoir toward Nukus is being laid, with future extension to Chimbay and Muynak. However, even Tuyamuyun water is becoming increasingly polluted. The optimal solution is to prohibit discharge of all industrial and agricultural wastewater into the Amu Darya basin — as has been done for the Volga and Ural rivers. Special water purification structures should be built urgently for cities including Nukus, Takhiatash, Khojayly, Muynak, Qungirot, Chimbay, Takhtakupir, and Kegeyli.

Wind erosion control requires seeding resistant plants — saxaul, tamarisk, liquorice, kandym, selin — in the most exposed areas. Regulating vehicle movement on the scattered, deeply rutted tracks that crisscross the delta is also important in combating soil erosion.

Aral Sea problems must be resolved not only within the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basin framework but at the scale of the broader Central Region of the country — Western Siberia, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia. Inter-zonal redistribution of water resources, generating return waters that could be directed to the drying sea bed, could maintain the Aral at a viable level, preserving it as the region's sole salt-accumulator.

The Aral region is rich in natural resources, producing cotton, rice, and livestock products. Irrigable lands in the Karakalpak ASSR alone (excluding Ustyurt) exceed 1.9 million hectares. With the development of virgin lands, improved pasture water supply, greater use of underground mineral resources, and the construction of new cities and settlements, the region's economic potential will grow. As the XXI Congress of the Communist Party of Uzbekistan stated: "The problem of environmental protection requires special attention. Issues of air and water pollution in the republic's industrial centers remain urgent. In the twelfth five-year plan, more than 500 million rubles are being allocated for environmental protection measures." Eliminating the ecological imbalances in this vast basin and developing comprehensive protection measures is an extremely important task that cannot be postponed.

Ziyovuddin Akramov, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor Asom Rafiqov, Candidate of Geographical Sciences